Poll results: Will the global stock market crash in 2023?
For the year ahead, experts’ predictions have ranged from extreme optimism to not-so-subtle nervousness, especially when it comes to gauging the health of the global economy.
This graph from Gilbert Fontana it skips past expert predictions and looks directly at those of citizens in multiple countries around the world.
Using data from the Ipsos Global Advisor Predictions 2019-2023 survey, the chart shows the percentage of average citizens who think global stock markets will fall in the coming year.
Methodology
The annual reports used to generate the charts are based on a survey of more than 24,000 adults in 36 countries. Each country shown had at least 500 individuals sampled, and countries in the G7 and other major economies, including China, Brazil and South Korea, had approximately 1,000 individuals sampled.
Specifically, respondents were asked whether “major stock markets around the world will fall” in the coming year, and were asked to answer either “likely” or “unlikely.”
The answers were collected at the end of the previous year. For example, for 2023, survey data was collected in October and November 2022. Uncertain or non-response responses are not included in the graph above.
And overall, each country’s data is also weighted to accurately reflect its demographic profile according to recent census data.
Stock market fall predictions by country
When looking forward to 2023, the majority of respondents from around the world thought that the likelihood of a global stock market crash more like rather unlikely.
| Market decline predictions by country | probably (2023) | Unlikely (2023) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 48% | 28% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 57% | 25% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 49% | 27% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 44% | 40% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 45% | 32% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 59% | 29% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 40% | 50% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 42% | 35% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 43% | 30% |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom) | 47% | 30% |
| ðŸ‡ðŸ‡º Hungary | 33% | 47% |
| 🇮🇳 India | 59% | 27% |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | 35% | 42% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | 42% | 35% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 40% | 26% |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | 71% | 15% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 50% | 29% |
| 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | 44% | 31% |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | 56% | 30% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 66% | 19% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 51% | 29% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 63% | 23% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 52% | 37% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 49% | 31% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 50% | 33% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 47% | 38% |
| 🇺🇸 United States of America | 47% | 31% |
| 🌎 Global average | 50% | 31% |
In 24 of the 27 countries in the sample, citizens thought it more likely than not that global stock markets will fall in 2023. This includes the entire G7, with 40-47% of citizens of each member answering “likely” compared to 26-35 % corresponds to “unlikely”.
The most pessimistic answers came from Malaysia, Polandand South Africawhere more than 60% of respondents thought markets were likely to fall in 2023. Malaysians led the way with 71% looking at a likely decline in 2023.
The only three countries where citizens believed that the stock market crash in 2023 was rarely are China, Israeland Hungary. China had the highest “unlikely” response rate of 50%, while in Hungary only 33% of respondents answered “probably” compared to 47% who answered unlikely.
Change in sentiment on the stock market
When we compare the answers from 2023 to those from 2019, we can see that the last five years have brought uncertainty and pessimism to most countries:
| A change in the prediction of a market decline | % likely change (2019-2023) | % unlikely change (2019-2023) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | +20 pp | -18 pp |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | +15 pp | -15 pp |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | +09 pp | -12 pp |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | +11 pp | -11 pp |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | +12 pp | -13 pp |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | +32 pp | -23 pp |
| 🇨🇳 China | +12 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇫🇷 France | +06 pp | -05 pp |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | +10 points | -07 pp |
| 🇬🇧 Great Britain (United Kingdom) | 0 pp | -02 pp |
| ðŸ‡ðŸ‡º Hungary | +09 pp | -08 pp |
| 🇮🇳 India | +26 pp | -24 pp |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | +03 pp | 0 pp |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | +11 pp | -08 pp |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | -04 pp | -06 pp |
| 🇲🇾 Malaysia | +07 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | +20 pp | -21 pp |
| 🇳🇱 The Netherlands | +03 pp | -09 pp |
| 🇵🇪 Peru | +30 pp | -23 pp |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | +21 pp | -18 pp |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | +03 pp | -11 pp |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | +28 pp | -26 pp |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | +26 pp | -26 pp |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | +18 pp | -05 pp |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | +04 pp | -02 pp |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | +05 pp | -06 pp |
| 🇺🇸 United States of America | +09 pp | -15 pp |
| 🌎 Global average | +13 pp | -13 pp |
Reactions of global stock markets likely to fall rose in 25 out of 27 countries, with 8 countries rising by more than 20 percentage points (pp). Especially, the neighbors Chile and Peru had the largest increases at 32 pp and 30 pp.
But neighboring sentiments were not followed around the world. For example, Doc South Korea had one of the largest increases in “likely” responses to a stock market decline at 26 pp, Japan was the only country that responded in a lower probability for 4 pp.
While the global mood is becoming more pessimistic, we can also see that the predictions of the previous year have not always been fulfilled. So the question remains what will 2023 really bring.
This article was published as part of Visual Capitalist’s creator program, featuring data-driven visuals from some of our favorite creators around the world.
