Markets

Study: Florida dominates list of most overvalued housing markets


Florida metros account for six of the 10 most overvalued housing markets in the country, according to the latest report from researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.

Cape Coral-Fort Myers is in first place, with buyers paying 62.29 percent more than they should, based on sales history in that market. Other Florida markets in the top 10 are: no. 2 Deltons (premium of 55.51 percent); no. 4. Palm Bay-Melbourne (54.55 percent); no. 6 Tampa (53.54 percent); no. 7 Lakeland (51.99 percent); and no. 10 North Port-Bradenton (48.41).

The only other metros in the top 10 are: no. 3 Atlanta (54.88 percent); no. 5 Charlotte (54.04 percent); no. 8 Boise, Idaho (50.83 percent); and 9. Las Vegas (48.71 percent).

The complete ranking list with interactive graphics can be found here.

Researchers rank the 100 largest metro areas using publicly available data from online real estate portal Zillow or other providers. The data, which spans January 1996 through the end of last month, includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

The first ranking, in August 2021, did not include a Florida metro in the top 10.

“It used to be that you didn’t need a big salary to afford a home in the Sunshine State, but those days are over as this has become a market mostly for move-up buyers and empty nesters,” said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., real estate economist at FAU’s College of Business. “Florida’s relatively low incomes should make housing affordability a key issue for a long time.”

Prospective Florida buyers hoping the market will cool are unlikely to see prices fall as they did from 2006 to 2012, said Eli Beracha, Ph.D., of FIU’s Holo School of Real Estate.

“We don’t expect housing prices to drop sharply because our high rents serve to support current prices,” Beracha said. “Florida is a very difficult market to break into right now unless you have a professional salary or income from selling a home in another state.

Markets with growing populations and a severe shortage of homes for sale will have less of a negative impact on prices, while other areas with stagnant or declining populations and more homes on the market could face significant price declines, the researchers said.

The researchers’ rankings do not take into account how expensive the market has traditionally been. High-cost areas like New York and San Francisco are among the least overvalued because homes in those metros are selling relatively close to where they should be, based on historical trends.

-FAU-

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